Errol Morris’s new piece in the NYTimes is interesting to me, as I’ve always noodled the Dunning-Kruger effect around in my mind ever since learning about it. And I’ve long held the belief that we act in a social system governed by confirmation bias; that is, we tend towards what we believe or want to believe, both in our learning and actions.

(The beauty -- and irony -- of Dunning-Kruger is that it is difficult to truly know on which end of the continuum you reside.)

Morris, in his piece, really gets into the holes in our knowledge and how they effect our behavior. This fascinates me, because I’ve been on both sides of conversations that were heated and full of energy only to find one of us was entirely ignorant of an adjunct area of knowledge that played heavily in the rounder conversation.

In Morris’s piece, David Dunning writes:

If I were given carte blanche to write about any topic I could, it would be about how much our ignorance, in general, shapes our lives in ways we do not know about. Put simply, people tend to do what they know and fail to do that which they have no conception of. In that way, ignorance profoundly channels the course we take in life.

Today’s bit in the NYTimes if part one of five. Can’t wait for the rest.

(Via kottke)

An Asker won't think it's rude to request two weeks in your spare room, but a Guess culture person will hear it as presumptuous and resent the agony involved in saying no. Your boss, asking for a project to be finished early, may be an overdemanding boor -- or just an Asker, who's assuming you might decline. If you're a Guesser, you'll hear it as an expectation. This is a spectrum, not a dichotomy, and it explains cross-cultural awkwardnesses, too: Brits and Americans get discombobulated doing business in Japan, because it's a Guess culture, yet experience Russians as rude, because they're diehard Askers.

Probably the best categorization of this personality spectrum I’ve seen anywhere; sure goes beyond the now-(in)famous Type A/Type B dichotomy.

As you might expect, when the extremes of these types are forced to interact, it probably won’t be pretty.

(Via Kottke)

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It's easy to admire our military personnel for the things they do in combat zones and hostile missions.  These are what we see on TV and read about in magazines.  They're what Hollywood turns into movies.

What many of us don't understand, including yours truly, is the risks our military men and women take every day, doing their equivalents of going to the office, filing reports and attending meetings.  In some cases, their 'routine' tasks and training can become more dangerous than being on actual missions.

Each of the two videos below is 10 minutes long, depicting what it's like for Naval aviators to try and land a fighter on a pitching aircraft carrier.  Seas that toss a carrier 30+ feet are incredibly dangerous, making pitch and yaw measurement insanely difficult.  The only thing that's more difficult is doing it at night, which also is a reality for these pilots.

You won't find a more gripping 20 minutes of video.  They're from 2008, but they never lose their punch.

Here's the scariest part: the Navy forces its pilots out in rough seas to practice this skill.  It's dangerous to the point where it even steels even the most experienced pilots, but it's necessary: one day, when the situation is real and there's no real chance of air support, pilots will live or die based upon whether they can pull this off or not. It's contingency training taken to the nth degree.

No.

From Roger Ebert's profile in Esquire, entitled 'The Essential Man':

I know it is coming, and I do not fear it, because I believe there is nothing on the other side of death to fear, he writes in a journal entry titled "Go Gently into That Good Night." I hope to be spared as much pain as possible on the approach path. I was perfectly content before I was born, and I think of death as the same state. What I am grateful for is the gift of intelligence, and for life, love, wonder, and laughter. You can't say it wasn't interesting. My lifetime's memories are what I have brought home from the trip. I will require them for eternity no more than that little souvenir of the Eiffel Tower I brought home from Paris. [...]

I believe that if, at the end of it all, according to our abilities, we have done something to make others a little happier, and something to make ourselves a little happier, that is about the best we can do. To make others less happy is a crime. To make ourselves unhappy is where all crime starts. We must try to contribute joy to the world. That is true no matter what our problems, our health, our circumstances. We must try. I didn't always know this, and am happy I lived long enough to find it out.

I can only hope that if I ever find myself in a situation similar to Ebert's, I have half as much perspective, dignity and class.

Derek Sivers’ 3-minute TED talk on leadership lessons from this dancing guy got a standing ovation.

(crosspost)

Conan's official press statement, scattered with goodies throughout.  One of the best I've ever seen, done with class by a classy guy being put in a shitty situation by management all too willing to accommodate Jay Leno's sudden change of heart at The Tonight Show's expense.

It starts on a good note with the salutation:

People of Earth:

Takes a subtle shot at Leno's meager 10pm ratings:

It was my mistaken belief that, like my predecessor, I would have the benefit of some time and, just as important, some degree of ratings support from the prime-time schedule.

And gets to the meat of it:

For 60 years the Tonight Show has aired immediately following the late local news. I sincerely believe that delaying the Tonight Show into the next day to accommodate another comedy program will seriously damage what I consider to be the greatest franchise in the history of broadcasting. The Tonight Show at 12:05 simply isn’t the Tonight Show. Also, if I accept this move I will be knocking the Late Night show, which I inherited from David Letterman and passed on to Jimmy Fallon, out of its long-held time slot. That would hurt the other NBC franchise that I love, and it would be unfair to Jimmy.

So it has come to this: I cannot express in words how much I enjoy hosting this program and what an enormous personal disappointment it is for me to consider losing it. My staff and I have worked unbelievably hard and we are very proud of our contribution to the legacy of The Tonight Show. But I cannot participate in what I honestly believe is its destruction. Some people will make the argument that with DVRs and the Internet a time slot doesn’t matter. But with the Tonight Show, I believe nothing could matter more.

Bravo, Conan.

Foreign Policy asked their top Global Thinkers to recommend their favorite – or most important – books.  The responses range from children’s books to biographies to policy manuals to fantasy novels.  Here’s the full list of their suggestions.