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Today's Mac event a dud?
Sounds like it might be. Everyone knows about the new iMacs (which I'm guessing are going to be jaw-dropping in terms of form factor and design aesthetic), so that will be no surprise (save the visuals). A Mac mini refresh is cool and all, and a lower price welcome. I don't see that as something to get worked up over, though. And some attention to iLife '08 (and maybe iWork '08) would be cool, but again, okay. Sorta stuff we all expect. Maybe it's to the point where Jobs and his limited-seating press events on Apple's campus aren't much to get all that excited about. Steve, you can stave off this perception problem right now and give me my MacBook Pro ultraportable. That would do it. People will freak over something like that, and you'll sell a bajillion of them in one day. That or brand new monitors with iSights built-in. Hell, I'd even dig a Bluetooth version of the iMac's rumored new keyboard. You know, I said before that the ultraportable might debut today, but nah. Scratch that. Steve doesn't want anything to steal the new iMac's thunder, so that will be the star of the show. No ultraportable MacBook/Pro. I am uncalling my previous call. So:
- New iMacs
- Re-warmed Mac mini
- Preview of iLife '08, maybe iWork '08
- Lots of talk about Mac marketshare growth
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Investors completely losing their minds on iPod/iPhone speculation.
More than anything, the laws of group psychology govern the stock market, as people fall victim to groupthink and react like a gigantic infantile mass. The reason for today's 4+% drop is the rumor that Apple is cutting production of either the iPod or iPhone. There's very little evidence here either way, but that doesn't stop investors from pissing themselves.
Some investors are speculating that Cupertino-based Apple is reducing production of either its popular iPod music players or the iPhone, perhaps by as much as 50 percent, said Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray Cos. in Minneapolis. "People are going crazy without knowing anything definitive, and those fears are swinging the shares," said Munster, who has rated Apple "outperform" since June 2004. "If it is an iPod production cut, that's a good thing because it's a sign a new iPod is coming," Munster said in an interview today.Clearly, the iPhone side of the rumor has the most speculative payload: the implication there is that the iPhone is doing so poorly that Apple has to ramp down production to accommodate flagging demand. I'll guarantee you right here and now that isn't what's happening. More likely, the iPod line is due for a shake up, and nobody really knows what that might look like yet. There are rumors of a 6G iPod coming very soon, but nothing is substantiated. Then there's the mysterious low guidance provided by Peter Oppenheimer for Apple's next fiscal quarter. Oppenheimer cryptically cites a "product transition that he can't get into" as part of the reason for the lower-than-expected guidance. To me, all of this says iPod shakeup. Big-ass iPod shakeup. I think the new iPod will look a lot like the iPhone (read: multi-touch interface), and will cost more to produce. As the cost basis of this new generation of iPods will be higher than the old models, margins will be slimmer and thus the lower guidance. Or, scenario B: Apple is moving the ITMS to a subscription-based model. This would very likely have an impact on the way Apple recognizes revenue. Or, if you want a terribly unlikely fringe story, here's scenario C: the iPod as we know it is being phased out in favor of the iPhone. What this means is that Apple is ready to diversify the iPhone product line earlier than anyone expected, thinking that the days of the standalone music player are dead. Under this model, Apple would want to move everyone to its latest converged device as soon as possible, which would have multiple models at various pricepoints as early as this Fall. My money rides on the thinner margin theory: there's a new iPod coming whose margins, due to higher production cost and more advanced hardware, are much lower than what Apple enjoys now. Extra bonus speculation: I wouldn't be surprised to see the Mac mini killed outright and new Macs introduced (iMac, MacBook Thin (ultraportable)) whose margins are similarly lower due to higher production costs. Regardless, today's market dip for AAPL is so amazingly speculative that it represents, for the astute medium-term investor, a great buying opportunity. On Wall Street, the wisdom of crowds is anything but.
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